Canadian Housing Market Shows Strong Finish in 2024 Paving the Way for 2025 Growth
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The Canadian housing market is closing out 2024 on a positive note, with home sales rising about 12% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter. The surge has shifted projections for 2025, with TD Economics now expecting sales to reach or exceed pre-pandemic levels by Q4 2024, earlier than initially anticipated. The growth is driven by falling borrowing costs, continued economic expansion, and new mortgage regulations introduced in December.
Regional trends indicate varied prospects across the country. British Columbia and Ontario are leading in sales growth, but affordability issues, particularly in Ontario's condo market, may limit price increases. Meanwhile, Alberta and the Prairie provinces are expected to see stable conditions due to better affordability, while Quebec is projected to experience solid price gains due to tight market conditions and federal policies.
While the outlook remains generally optimistic, risks such as tariff threats could negatively impact the economy and housing market. Conversely, further easing of borrowing costs could boost sales and prices more than expected, presenting both opportunities and challenges for 2025.
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